to 275 production ? oaters of various types will be required for Breakdown of Planned Projects bythe 233 projects we are tracking.Location of FieldAround 15% of the 233 visible planned projects are likely (As of 1 October 2014)to advance to the EPC contracting stage within the next 18 Project Location Number of Projectsmonths. These projects typically have either entered the FEED phase, pre-quali? cation of ? oater contractors has been Africa 49initiated or bidding/negotiation is in progress. Another 48% of the visible projects are at a stage of develop-Brazil 43ment where the EPC contract for the production unit is like-ly within the next 18 to 48 months. The remaining 37% of SE Asia 40projects are less advanced in planning, with the EPC contract likely 4 to 10 years out.GOM 24New Forecast of Production Floater Orders – We have just completed a detailed analysis of the outlook for produc-No. Europe 24tion and storage ? oater orders over the next ? ve years. Aust/NZ 16Utilizing our database of planned projects, we use a bottom up approach to establish the likely number of ? oating produc-Medit 10tion projects to reach the investment stage between 2015 and 2019. Then we analyze the underlying business drivers likely SW Asia 10to exist during this period – and assess how these drivers will likely impact the pace of investment decisions in project de-Other 17velopment starts. Having a large number of projects at the investment stage is certainly important. But ultimately, the Total233? eld operator has to feel comfortable making the investment. The investment environment will determine whether projects go forward, get delayed or be considered non-starters.In the unknown category areIn our report we examine 12 underlying business drivers that • how competitive will deepwater be with shale oil supply will in? uence the pace of investment in ? oating production • will a black swan event impact the sectorproject starts. Some of these are positive drivers. Some are negative. All have an impact on the number and timing of The result is a forecast of orders that re? ects the growing future production ? oater orders. number of projects in the planning pipeline and a future pace of ordering that re? ects the uncertainty about underlying busi-In the positive category are ness conditions in which investment decisions are made. • oil and gas demand keeps growing as world output and population grows• supply disruption keeps the focus on